Staying Relevant In The AI Revolution

“The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment.” - Warren Bennis

Why All The Pessimism?

When the Gutenberg Printing Press was developed somewhere around 1436, a small number of highly skilled book makers were eventually displaced from their former jobs.

But the result was a more scalable form of production that enabled a widespread adoption of literacy and a wave of education that altered the trajectory of the human species.

This is how most of our major innovations have played out. A small percentage of the population sees some job displacement at the betterment of the whole.

When we boil it down, technology is the lever that enables us to generate more output with less input. It improves productivity and lowers the price of goods and services.

All humans have one dire problem that they are navigating: time restrictions.

We only have a certain number of years to live. That piece of information; that inevitability of death, is what ultimately drives our every action.

So we use our creativity to sprout new ideas and new technologies that bring us pleasure by making our workload easier, and giving us more time for leisure.

Based on this premise, you’d think that most logical people would be optimistic when it comes to future technologies and the potential that they have to change our lives for the better.

But this is not the case…

We have a default setting deep within our DNA that guides us towards safety and stability.

In a world that functions on movement and change, humans have taken on the responsibility to fight against entropy in an ongoing effort to control the chaos around us.

Since humans are innately resistant to change, it should come as no surprise that many people still resist cutting edge technologies given their high success rate of delivering value to the greater good.

Let’s look deeper into this unique characteristic of human consciousness with some historical examples.

The Luddite Movement

The Luddites (”lu-dites”) were a group of British textile artisans in the 19th century who started a movement to rage against the machine.

Textile looms were being developed that were capable of weaving a far larger scale of fabric faster and cheaper by combining low wage, low skill workers with the latest weaving technology.

The Luddites responded by burning down mills and destroying machines.

The uprisings eventually came to a stop through harsh legal and military action, and the Luddites were unable to defend their craft against the force of innovation and automation.

Many of them suffered from job displacement and stagnant wages. Some never quite recovered and drank themselves to death.

But because of this, their children and grandchildren were able to live better lives.

As the years passed, the word 'Luddite' has evolved to describe those who oppose industrialization, automation, computerization, or new technologies, often viewing them as a threat to safety.

In the same way that the farm owners of the pre industrial revolution were transitioned into factory workers, the factory workers then transitioned into knowledge based workers, or yoga instructors, or tour guides, or artists.

Over the long term, technological progress has generally steered us in a positive direction.

But does that mean we can use it as a general rule of thumb?

History Altering Technologies (H.A.T.s)

To answer that question, let’s walk through a few of the most life changing technological innovations of human kind and how their adoptions affected the workforce.

Each of these innovations have created widespread disruptions in the current operating procedures of life which had worldwide historical implications. For that reason, I will refer to them as H.A.T.s, or History Altering Technologies.

H.A.T. #1 was the steam engine. The invention is generally credited to Thomas Newcomen in the early part of the 1700’s, however the idea of using steam as power was being research for many years prior.

The use of that innovation found its way into powering houses, factories, boats, trains, and mines (which yielded even more energy). It altered the realm of what was possible in all aspects of life at that time.

H.A.T. #2 was the ability to harness the power of electricity as artificial light. This credit is usually given to Thomas Edison for inventing the best version of the technology of the time (although he was not the first; there are at least 11 other inventors worldwide that had established patents on the idea of a glowing filament in a bulb of glass before Edison).

The innovation and application of artificial light is one of the best gifts of human civilization. And the light bulb is what made the widespread adoption so possible.

In 1880, a minute of work would earn you the equivalent of 4 minutes of light with a kerosene lamp. By 2000, a minute of work would earn you 120 hours of light.

It expanded the average day of humans by 5 hours, thereby boosting the amount of productivity AND leisure time.

These two innovations combined fueled the Industrial Revolution by turning the traditional models of production upside down.

In terms of workforce turbulence, these first two H.A.T.s generally contributed to the deskilling of laborers. Meaning industries that once required highly skilled craftsmen were broken down into simpler tasks that could be driven by low wage workers and machine automations - such as the case with the Luddites.

Over time, technology increased the output of goods and drove down the prices for consumers, making the final product more desirable to a larger scope of the market, and raising the overall standard of living.

H.A.T. #3 is Information and Communication Technology, or ICT (i.e. fiber optic cables, satellites, wifi, internet, etc.)

The internet is the most impactful and widespread technology that has swayed human civilization over the past three decades.

However, its sway on the labor force has been a bit different…

ICT is oftentimes in favor of higher skilled workers. Our telecommunication networks allow for good managers to oversee larger teams. Our internet environment allows for flexible business owners to tap into markets that would never exist outside of their physical storefronts. Abundant information allows crafty consumers to undercut the middleman and go right to the source.

History altering innovations typically sway different segments of the workforce, but they generally lead to a net positive for society at large.

But when it comes to the current H.A.T. that we’re living through, can we apply this same reason of thought?

H.A.T. #4: History In The Making

We’re currently riding the wave of one of the biggest technological revolutions of the past 500 years: Artificial Intelligence.

PwC estimated that AI will contribute almost $16 Trillion to the global economy by 2030. That’s almost as big as China’s GDP.

The question is not which sectors of the job force will be impacted. The question is how long before they are all impacted, and if this will lead to a net positive or negative.

When it comes to the adoption of AI, the rate of change will be exponentially quicker than any of the other History Altering Technologies mentioned above for 4 key reasons:

I: Existing Underlying Infrastructure

The steam engine and the domestication of electricity required centuries of research & development, compounding inventions, societal demands, manufacturing of parts, assembly of massive networks of infrastructure, and mountains of private capital before the Industrial Revolution began to take hold.

Even the invention and widespread adoption of Information & Communication Technology was fundamentally a hardware intensive endeavour.

Physical parts had to be invented, prototyped, manufactured, shipped, installed, configured, and scaled to the point where they made a viable case to be commercially deployed.

But when it comes to the development of AI, the physical infrastructure that houses it has already been built and rolled out across the entire globe. There are no physical barriers that need to be crossed for AI to take hold.

II: Ease Of Spread

The ease of scale when it comes to Artificial Intelligence is what makes the rate of adoption so unlike any innovation before.

Most AI tools are just digital algorithms, making them instantly transferable. They can be delivered to the end user in minutes, or even seconds. There’s nothing that needs to be built, shipped, or assembled.

They’re also infinitely replicable. Meaning after a developer builds one functioning model, that model can be rolled out indefinitely for other people to use. There are no constraints such as capital, labor, or physical materials. It’s just copy and paste.

Constant development is another key factor to consider with the spread of AI.

Unlike physical inventions, AI and cloud based technologies are always being improved.

Developers have the ability to put their tools out into the world before their creation is anywhere close to the final product.

Then as users interact more, they can go back to rebuild and launch updates as the service gets better. This benefits both the user, and the creator.

The user is always getting an improved product that gradually gets more efficient over time.

The creator is able to release a simple, but useful version of their tool as a Minimum Viable Product (M.V.P.) to get feedback from users and constantly improve, as opposed to taking on millions of dollars in outside capital and 10 years to build the idea before launching.

This subtle component of the internet based business model opens up the playing field to a much broader range of entrepreneurs who will contribute to the widespread adoption of AI.

And that brings us to the third reason why the rate of adoption will far exceed that of any other H.A.T. up to this point in history.

III: Market Dynamics & Modern Financial Instruments

Prior to the 1970’s, the concept of Venture Capital hardly existed. Sure there were methods to raising and investing capital, but the idea of placing a high volume of high risk, high reward bets was not a common practice like we see today.

That means that during the Industrial Revolution, inventors had to rely on sparse financing strategies which typically meant tapping into personal savings, family members, wealthy friends, or bank loans.

The idea of walking into a group of investors that you hardly knew and pitch them into giving you millions of dollars for a small chance of 10x-ing their money was simply nonexistent.

Imagine how many great ideas never made it out into the world because of capital restrictions. Financial instruments that we now view as commonplace in the west have been contributing to the rapid development in the tech world over the past half-century.

And the VC target is now pointed directly at the world of AI.

IV: Geopolitics

The ancient board game of Go, believed to have originated in China over 4,000 years ago, is renowned for its profound complexity and near-infinite array of strategic possibilities.

Characterized by its simple set of rules, two players aim to capture each other's territory on the board.

Despite its apparent simplicity, Go presents a staggering depth of strategy, involving intricate tactics and long-term planning. It is estimated that the number of possible board configurations surpasses the number of atoms in the observable universe.

In 2017, most people in the AI space thought that an AI program was at least 10 years away from defeating the best Go player in the world.

But lo and behold, AlphaGo, an AI backed by Google, accomplished the grand feat of topping the current world champion, 19 year old Ke Jie, 4 games to 1.

And while no one in the U.S. seemed to take notice, across the world in China, 280 million people (84% of the U.S. population) tuned in to watch this technological breakthrough.

Almost instantly, the Chinese central government set forth enthusiastic plans to become the global leader in AI development.

The same year that AlphaGo defeated the greatest carbon based Go player in the world, Chinese VC investments into AI surpassed the U.S. making up nearly half of the all AI venture funding world-wide.

By enforcing AI friendly policies from the top down, the Chinese government has incentivized their brightest minds, hungriest entrepreneurs, and most ambitious bureaucrats to jump full steam into the AI Revolution.

For these reasons, the speed at which the next H.A.T. rolls out to widespread commercial adoption will be unlike any of the technological revolutions before our time.

The Agrarian Revolution lasted thousands of years. The Industrial Revolution lasted hundreds of years.

The Information Revolution (beginning with the widespread use of the internet) has a tight grip on our global society, and it is only getting amplified by the AI Revolution that is being built on its foundation.

Innovations tend to get stacked on top of one another and procreate into even more complex innovations.

The application of AI is already spreading like wildfire. New AI tools are being launched every day. And the effects that they have on our standard operating procedures of life are becoming more applicable to the average person.

And while the history of the other H.A.T.s lead us to take more of an optimistic approach to the overall implications that innovations have on society at large, the rapid and widespread deployment of AI tools will certainly present us with an abundance of short term problems to deal with, especially when it comes to the great topic of labor.

What does it mean for our workforce when AI can do more and more of our daily operations?

Will society take a different structure when massive groups of citizens have no need to work?

How will average people earn an income if robots can do everything? Will universal basic income be necessary? Who would pay for it?

Do modern day Luddites have reason for their pessimism in the case of Artificial Intelligence?

Are any jobs safe from rapid disruption?

Moravec’s Paradox

Kai-Fu Lee, who is a former executive at Google, Microsoft and Apple, and current CEO of Sinovation Ventures, has spent his entire professional life in the world of AI and robotics. He attacked this great question of labor in the face of the AI Revolution in his book AI Superpowers.

His deep research, built on the work of Hans Moravec, provides an interesting view on where the labor force might be heading in our near future.

Moravec's paradox is the observation in artificial intelligence and robotics that, contrary to traditional assumptions, reasoning requires very little computation, but sensorimotor and perception skills require enormous computational resources.

In the words of Kai-Fu Lee, “It is relatively easy for AI to mimic the high-level intellectual or computational abilities of an adult, but it’s far harder to give a robot the perception and sensorimotor skills of a toddler. In essence, AI is great at ‘thinking,’ but robots are bad at moving their fingers.”

So contrary to the physical automation that displaced workers throughout the Industrial Revolution, the coming tide of AI will likely hit the “white collar” workers first.

AI to information based workers will be a similar phenomena to the rollout of farming machinery in the early 20th century. It will dramatically increase the productivity of each worker, thus shrinking the number of workers required to get the job done.

But unlike tractors, AI can be shipped instantly and infinitely to any corner of the globe.

Combine that with the fact that physical innovations play out on a longer timescale than virtual ones, its safe to say that in the next few years, AI will be more disruptive to the information parsers of the world than to those who get their hands dirty for a living.

But keep in mind that this type of technology will be a slow creep that will eventually affect everyone.

And according to Kai-Fu Lee, the AI Revolution doesn’t quite fit into the traditional matrixes of low skill vs. high skill labor. “Instead, it creates a mixed bag of winners and losers depending on the particular content of the job tasks performed.”

So we might see AI take over more and more smaller components of our everyday jobs before it chases us out in one brief sweeping.

Additionally, AI cannot yet perform cross-domain thinking on tasks that require complex strategy based on inputs that are not easily quantifiable. Another important factor is the social aspect of many jobs.

Humans might still steer the social interactions while machines work behind the scenes to complete the menial tasks. In this view, there would be more of a symbiotic relationship with humans and machines, which has already taken hold on many jobs.

Boiling all these factors together, Lee’s work provides the following charts to help us visualize the speed and risk of job displacement in both Cognitive Labor and Physical Labor.

What To Do?

If you find yourself in the rabbithole of AI and you’re trying to wrap your mind around the rapidly shifting global dynamics that the Information Age has bestowed upon us, it's important to note that you are not alone.

History at its very roots is swayed by the technological innovations of the time.

Innovations in farming led to the Agrarian Revolution which completely changed the way humans lived and organized themselves, their communities, and their time.

The invention of gunpowder led to the fall of feudal societies by giving protection and controlled violence back to the serfs and reducing the tyrannical capabilities of the ruling class.

Innovations in machinery led to the Industrial Revolution which once again changed the operating procedures of the human race and reshaped our global dynamics.

Innovations in intellectual discord led to the crumbling of the Monarchical rule and the notions of liberty and the democratic republic.

The invention of the internet and decentralization of information currently has the structure of the nation-state stretching at the seems to remain in control of their citizens.

To an extent, history does repeat itself. But we can never fully understand where we are heading by looking at where we have been.

Black swan events and H.A.T.s sway history specifically because they are so hard to predict.

So while it can be useful to understand our past civilizations’ patterns to estimate where we are headed, the best thing we can do is to fully immerse in the present time, and try to position ourselves for the oncoming tidal wave.

The truth is that in solving problems we create new problems to solve.

Our creativity is the ultimate law of human nature. Doubling down on our ability to solve life’s problems is an attribute that can never be replaced by Artificial Intelligence.

In a revolution where AI runs the risk of creating a caste system of tech elites and what historian Yuval N. Harari has pragmatically deemed the “useless class,” all we can do is leverage our creativity to position ourselves at the forefront of the movement.

Learn the newest tools. Apply them to your daily tasks to free up more leisure time.

By experimenting and using AI tools, you are already placing yourself above 95% of the population that is lagging behind.

You don’t have to be the creator of a new AI tool in order to benefit. Since they’re all so new, you can become an “expert” in a weekend and start helping other people leverage the same playbooks that have worked to help you improve your life.

The AI revolution is already upon us. And it's not going anywhere. Buckle up and embrace the turbulence.

Or you may be left fighting for the scraps with the rest of the “useless class.”